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The Facebook IPO

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Well the big day is here.  Facebook will go public at $38 per share and before the day is out the stock should be selling at a much higher price.  Many people will get very rich today including many angel investors in Facebook and that is a good thing for the economy.  These early stage investors will have more money to help fund future companies and that will stimulate the economy.  Of course the main guys at Facebook will become zillionaires and one of the creeps is already looking to skip out of the USA in order to avoid a big federal tax hit.  Isn't it amazing that for some people they can never have enough money!

As for investing in Facebook I urge investors to proceed with extreme caution.  The valuation being accorded this company is in my opinion way too optimistic.  Facebook faces a major challenge on the advertising end of the business.  Currently, mobile devices do not include Facebook advertisers.  Facebook was configured as a PC oriented service and the challenge to the company is to advertise on mobile which is the fastest growing area for viewing Facebook.  At some point I figure they will find some way to deal with this issue but for now I wouldn't' go near the stock.

 

Thursday thoughts..................

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It's a wonder that Obama is even close to winning in November. Voters must really like the guy because most folks still think the economy stinks.  No president wins reelection if folks think economic times are bad for them.  Fact is Obama inherited a mess much greater than even he suspected.  He didn't push for a big enough initial stimulus with both houses of Congress in Democrat hands.  He bungled health care reform. Yes, things have recovered and Obama has faced unparalleled Republican opposition that borders on rage and hatred but ultimately the president gets blamed.  Not looking too good for Barry.

Speaker of the House John Boehner is once again threatening to let the US default on its debt instruments.  Haven't we seen this show before? Really, is there one statesman left in the GOP?. It's hard to watch Boehner on TV.  He is such a hack jerk.  Then again, Princess Polesi is not much better.  In my time a remember the likes of Sam Rayburn, Everert Dirksen, and Jacob Javits.  Real legislative statesmen.  Could we ever use a great leader now!

Willard Romney is not letting reporters ask him any questions.  Really folks can anyone envision voting for this guy?  Sure folks will vote against Obama and he will be their vehicle.  But I have yet to hear anything from this robot's mouth that would sound like coherent public policy.  If elected he will be a disaster.  Before too long I expect the "Mormon" card will be used in this campaign. It will get real ugly.

I hope that John Edwards goes to jail.  He is one of the most repugnant public figures in memory.  What a piece of human waste.  Got a feeling he will get off though.  He is a sociopath. 

 

Ignorance is Bliss

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It's always been this way.  Even as a little boy I was very interested in politics. I grew up in a household where my very intelligent mother had an active interest in current affairs and was an avid reader of newspapers.  She was a rabid Republican who hated Democrats.  Perhaps she was the forerunner of the current political environment. She particularly hated FDR since he closed the banks for awhile during the depression and the family lost money. She despised Truman who although a good president was a big partisan in his own right and accordingly was loathed by Republicans.  I remember going with my mother to vote and thinking it was really exciting.  Could go on and on but it would get boring.  For now the point I want to make is that I always seemed to be a political junkie which today is a very depressing experience.

Just over 50% of the eligible voters in the USA cast ballots in a presidential election.  Less than that on for Congress in off-years.  It seems that while Americans love to complain about their government they don't seem much inclined to do something about it by voting.  There are millions of Americans who are clueless as to the dangers that face the citizens of this country if Republicans take over all three branches of government in November. It will be a disaster for the middle class and the poor will really suffer.  This could lead to a full fledged revolt of the masses and bring forth unparalleled social unrest.  It's happening in Europe and it could happen here.

The coming presidential election once more offers the prospect of voting against someone (Romney) rather in favor of candidate. I voted for Obama in 2008 but won't vote for him again this year unless New Jersey is close.  I like the guy as do many people but truth is he was not up to the job and sadly hasn't learned much in three years. Currently, his pandering to women is getting me sick.  That Barnard speech really turned me off. As for Romney it's hard for me to express how much I despise him.  The man has no soul and I would not trust him for one second in a crisis.  For a political junkie these are hard times. Sometimes ignorance really is bliss!!

 

Let's get real folks!!

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I'm confident that gay activists along with the NY Times want folks to think that the most pressing issue in the national consciousness is "marriage" equality".  They are wrong.  Come this November folks will be, as usual, voting with their pocket books in mind.  Honestly, all this clamor over gay marriage is getting too much to bear. If gays want into enter into a contract that in the heterosexual world ends in termination 50% of the time, let them do it with my blessing.  As an aside,in my life I have known several gay couples that although they were not "married" were devoted partners and they never complained about not having the ability to get married.  They took care of each other and wrote very specific wills about what would happen financially after one departed. 

Accordingly I think the important issue before the public should be the collapse of Greece and the import to the global economy.  Also, growth in China is slowing down which has ominous portends for the world financial system.  In this country we still have big banks being reckless in their investment activities and apparently no one has the courage to face up to them because they contribute so much money to politicians.  We have a Supreme Court that has allowed corporate America to buy the political discourse in this country, and in a few weeks will say that health care reform is dead.  As a society we face a right wing takeover of all three branches of government in November and all people can talk about is gay marriage. Give me a break.  The world has truly gone mad. Time to get real folks!!!

 

Lessons not Learned

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One would have thought that after the disasters of 2008 the financial industry would have learned some lessons on how not to run their businesses. However, judging from the blockbuster news that the esteemed JPMorganChase recently lost $2 billion using extremely risky and as it turns out stupid trading strategies.  Theses strategies involved the "hedging" of very complicated derivative securities.  Yes, those same type of derivatives that got us in all that trouble in 2008.  These credit derivatives are essentially a "paper" product developed with the use of sophisticated computer software developed by the best and brightest of the nation's business schools.  The type of trade that led to the $2 billion trade was supposedly banned by post-2008 regulations, but as usual Chase used paid for legal opinions to claim they were within the law.  They were not and now we see the heads starting to roll. The entire episode disgusts me.

I worked on Wall Street for more than thirty years and the culture then was so much different than today. When I obtained by first job as a research analyst I had to learn how to use a slide ruler for calculations. There were no such things as computers let alone the overall technology that drives the Street today. When I worked on the Street the commercial banking industry didn't play the important role that it plays today. It was a simpler more clear cut business environment and I'm glad I was able to work on the Street during that period.  Investment fundamentals were the important items not the latest no-value derivative product. However, what really frosts me in the latest debacle is the arrogance of it all.  In a capitalist society there must in my opinion be a profit motive or the entire concept collapses. However, there must be limits.  This country has moved to break up monopolies and reigned in the robber barons.  It's time for the morons in Washington to get tough with Wall Street but I'm surely not holding my breath on that one since many of those elected to represent "us" only represent their biggest donors many of which work on Wall Street.

 


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