2009 Predictions

Everybody seems to be offering predictions for the coming year, so why not me? So here it goes………….

  • The stock market will stage an early year rebound largely surrounding the theory that at last we will have a national leader who has a brain.
  • The economy will rebound faster than expected because Americans cannot resist the temptation to spend.
  • Housing prices will rebound slowly but will show signs of life by the end of the year.  People still need a place to live and housing will take on a more rational reason for owning, and folks will stop using the "house" as a "bank".  This will have significant long-term implications for the economy.
  • Oil prices will spike to more than $100 per barrel sometime during 2009 as mid-East tensions boil over.
  • GM will go bankrupt in 2009.  There is no saving this pension liability pig.
  • Alternative energy stocks will be hot in 2009. 
  • Any early year rally should be viewed as an excellent selling opportunity, because the structural problems in the economy are so acute long-term commitments to equities could prove quite risky.

Finally, while 2008 was horrendous for me by any standard, I hesitate to say things couldn't be much worse, because that could happen.  Let's just say I hope it's a better year!!




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