Beware 2009 Predictions

It's that time of the old year when many predictions concerning the coming year are made.  Often times from people who should know better.  This is particularly true in the financial area where so many of the 2008 predictions were so lousy.  Perhaps the most stupid off-base prediction was made by Arjun Murti the esteemed oil analyst at Goldman Sachs who on May 5, 2008 proclaimed, " the possibility of $150-$200 per barrel oil seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months".  Of course, thanks to a global recession, prices are now nearing the $40 mark, and some experts even see $25 as a possibility next year.  Then you have that fool (or worse) Jim Cramer who responding to a viewers email on March 11, 2008 said that "Bear Stearns is fine – don't take your money out". A couple of days later Bear Stearns was gone.  There are many other examples of ridiculous comments.  The point of this being, take all pronouncements by the so-called experts with a huge grain of salt. 

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